Germany votes – will its EU policy change?
The stakes are high when Germany holds snap elections on 23 February 2025. For the EU, both domestic and European policies in the most populous country in the Union are of great importance. Valentin Kreilinger (SIEPS) analyses what the parties' positions, the possible coalitions and the upcoming policy decisions mean for Europe.
Germany is heading towards an election with an unpredictable outcome. Public opinion is volatile, and the party system is fragmented. At the same time, important decisions need to be taken, both domestically and within the EU. The need for leadership is great.
In this European Policy Analysis, Valentin Kreilinger, Senior Researcher in Political Science at SIEPS, reviews the key issues at stake, the positions taken by political parties in the run-up to the elections, and the possible political outcomes of potential coalitions. At the centre is the question of how Germany's EU policy might change under a new government.
The government's three years in power have been characterised by internal conflicts that have also prevented Germany from assuming its traditional role as a facilitator of compromise in the EU's decision-making machinery. The new government will need to improve the coordination of European policy. German decisiveness, or the lack thereof, defines the EU's ability to act.
European policy does not play the main role in the run-up to the elections. Germany's budget was what ultimately rendered the government unable to govern and remains a headache. Support for Ukraine and the build-up of defence are also hot domestic issues, with German decisions also having repercussions on the continent. For voters, asylum and migration policy is as important as the economy.
After the election, coalition negotiations await, which may well take a long time. The author sees it as likely that the Christian democrats will regain the Chancellor position, but they cannot govern alone and the choice of coalition partner can steer the course in different directions, which the author also provides an overview of.
At the same time, Eurosceptic forces also seem to be making significant progress in the elections. The author concludes that Germany is no longer as secure a source of political stability and predictability in the EU as the country once was.
On 19 February, SIEPS held a webinar discussing the upcoming German election. Read more and watch the recording here.