Changing transatlantic relations – and what it means for Europe

Since the end of the Second World War, a strong relationship with the United States has been central to the security, prosperity and stability of the European continent. This is especially true today, with a war going on in Europe. At the same time, the transatlantic relationship has been under great strain and now looks set to weaken.

In this European Policy Analysis, Professor Marianne Riddervold outlines the cornerstones of the transatlantic relationship, presents scenarios for its development after the US presidential election and discusses implications for EU defence and security interests. She emphasises that the transatlantic relationship has a structural strength – in terms of economic activity, shared values and common interests – and still can be described as the strongest interregional relationship in the world. However, for a number of years, this relationship has changed: the US now attaches greater importance to China and South-East Asia and has adopted a more confrontational and ‘transactional’ approach towards the EU and NATO partners, while Europe finds its territorial security challenged by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, the diametrically different foreign policy orientations of the US presidential candidates could have major implications for EU security, defence and trade policy The analysis thus discusses the implications of a second term for Donald Trump or an election victory for Kamala Harris, i.e., either an isolationist approach towards the EU or an approach that keeps the transatlantic link intact but also maintains the focus on China and the Pacific.

However, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, the EU will need to strengthen its defence and security capabilities, come to terms with an increasingly fragmented transatlantic partnership and strengthen its other relationships.

Marianne Riddervold is a research professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and professor of International Relations/Comparative Politics at the Inland Norway University.