The 2024 European Parliament Elections: Potential Outcome and Consequences

The European Parliament elections in June take place in a fragmented political landscape. Political scientists Simon Hix and Abdul Noury consider the expected election results, which point to unstable majorities and a challenge when it comes to build a majority for the election of the Commission President.

At a time in which the EU faces major challenges, the European elections in June are expected to result in a divided Parliament. Opinion polls suggest that the seat shares of the four largest groups in the current Parliament will remain stable (EPP) or decline (S&D, RE and Greens/EFA) and that the right-wing groups (ECR and ID) will gain ground. The European Parliament as a whole is expected to shift to the right, with 25 per cent of MEPs coming from these two groups.

To see what consequences these changes might have, the authors of this analysis examine the balance of power, coalition building and voting patterns between 2019 and 2024, as well as the outcome of four key votes in the current Parliament in more detail.

They conclude that the European Parliament will be more fragmented next term, with potentially unstable coalitions. The centrist “super grand coalition” (of EPP, S&D and RE) looks set to still hold 55 per cent of the seats. But a “populist-right coalition” (between EPP, ECR and ID, with the addition of the MEPs from Hungary’s Fidesz) will likely, for the first time, fall just a few seats short of a majority.

These changes in group and coalition sizes would lead to different policy outcomes in the 2024–2029 legislature, in comparison with the current term of office, particularly on environmental and migration issues.

Simon Hix is the Stein Rokkan Chair in Comparative Politics, European University Institute, Florence. Abdul Noury is Associate Professor of Political Science, NYU Abu Dhabi.

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